How a baby guess pool works
Everyone guesses a couple of things about the arrival. The baby turns up. Whoever guessed closest wins. That's the entire game, and it's been played on scraps of paper at showers for generations — you'll also hear it called a baby sweepstake, a baby pool, or guess the date.
There are only three decisions to make: what people guess, how you score it, and what the winner gets. Everything else is decoration. Get those three settled before anyone guesses and nothing can go wrong later.
It isn't only for pregnancies, either. Plenty of these run for adoptions, surrogacy and second or third babies — swap "due date" for "the day we meet them", or "placement day", and the game works exactly the same. If there isn't a due date to anchor to, guess a window instead: which week, and what the first photo will look like.
What to guess on — and what's actually fun
Not all the classic categories are equally good. Honestly ranked:
- Arrival date — keep it. The backbone of the game. Everyone has an opinion, the due date gives a natural anchor to argue with, and it resolves cleanly.
- Weight — keep it. The best second category. Newborns have a real spread (most land somewhere in the 2.7–4.2 kg range), so it genuinely separates people, and it's the guess that stops everyone from simply camping on the due date.
- Time of day — use as a tiebreaker. Almost pure noise as a scored category, but perfect for splitting two guesses that finish level.
- Length — skip it, or make it a novelty. Sounds good, plays badly. Nearly everybody writes something between 48 and 52 cm, and a newborn's length is the least precise measurement taken that day.
- Hair — genuinely fun, don't score it. "How much hair?" is the best side bet in the game: no skill, instant answer, and the reveal photo does all the work. Give it its own tiny prize.
- Eye colour — leave it out. Unresolvable for months, because newborn eye colour often changes.
- Who they'll look like — great, unscoreable. Pure vibes. Collect the guesses for the laugh, don't put them on the leaderboard.
- The name — only with permission. Fine if the parents have already announced it, or if they're openly keeping it secret and think guessing is funny. Never run one that turns into people lobbying for names the parents didn't choose.
- Sex — ask first. If the parents know and haven't told, it's a fun binary. If nobody knows, it's a coin flip and half the room wins, which makes it useless as a scored category. And for some families it's a sensitive one — a quick check costs nothing.
The combination that works best in practice: score the date and the weight, and run hair and "who they'll look like" as unscored side bets. Two things to be right about, two things to laugh about.
Scoring fairly when guesses are close
This is where pools fall over. Two people are a day apart, someone else nailed the weight, and suddenly the organiser is doing maths at 2am with a newborn photo on their phone. Pick one of these up front.
Points off, combined (recommended)
One point for every day away from the actual date, plus one point for every 100 grams away from the actual weight. Lowest total wins. That scale is deliberate: being 200 grams out costs the same as being two days out, so date and weight pull about equal weight and you can't win by ignoring the scales.
Sam guessed 12 Sept, 3.4 kg → 3 days (3) + 150 g (1.5) = 4.5
Priya guessed 16 Sept, 3.6 kg → 1 day (1) + 50 g (0.5) = 1.5
Jo guessed 14 Sept, 3.9 kg → 1 day (1) + 350 g (3.5) = 4.5
Priya wins. Sam and Jo tie for second — and that's why you need a tiebreak rule.
Two separate winners
Closest date wins one prize, closest weight wins another. No maths, twice the winners, and much easier to read out loud in a room full of people who don't want a leaderboard. The trade-off is that a single person guessing both brilliantly doesn't get rewarded for it.
Ties
Earliest guess wins is the standard, and it's a good one — it rewards committing before the crowd. The alternatives are closest time of day, split the prize, or a coin toss. Any of them is fine; deciding on the day is not.
One other rule worth writing down
Say when guessing closes. The shower itself, or 38 weeks, or "when we tell you it's happening" — but say it. Once labour is being live-texted to the group chat, a late guess isn't a guess. And if the parents get a scheduled date for an induction or a caesarean, close the pool before that gets announced. That single rule prevents every fairness argument these things ever have.
What prize is appropriate
Small. That's the honest answer. The pool is a bit of fun attached to somebody's actual child, and a serious cash prize turns it into a bet on a medical event — which lands badly with more people than you'd think.
Prizes that suit the occasion:
- Bragging rights, plus a photo of the winner holding the baby.
- A bottle of something, a box of good chocolates, a $20–$30 voucher.
- Naming rights to the baby's first teddy.
- First cuddle, or first visit slot once the parents are up for it.
- A lifetime exemption from nappy duty, issued in writing.
Choose humour over value. If you do want money in it, keep the entry to a gold coin or $5 and put the whole lot towards a gift for the parents rather than a prize for the winner — that's the version nobody has ever objected to. Say so when you open it. Don't make the prize baby gear (that's a job, not a reward), don't make the parents buy it, and never take a cut.
Should the parents play?
Yes — let them guess. A mother's guess is the best entertainment in the pool, she's the only one with any inside information, and she is very often wrong anyway. Two sensible adjustments: if there's a prize with real value, put the parents in their own line on the board rather than in the running for it; and let them decide whether their guesses are visible, because not everyone wants the group reading "honestly, any day now, I'm over it".
Include the older siblings. A five-year-old guessing that the baby will weigh forty kilos and arrive on their own birthday is the single best thing that will happen in your pool, so make sure entering is simple enough for a kid with a borrowed phone.
And ask the parents before you start it. Most love a pool. Some — especially after a long or difficult road to get here — find "guess the date" quietly stressful, and a one-line text ("want me to run a guess pool, or would you rather not?") costs you nothing and saves a lot.
At a shower versus in the group chat
At the shower
Everyone guesses in one sitting. Do it early — before the games, before the cake, while everybody is still in one room and nobody has drifted to the garden. Read a few out loud; the wild ones are the entertainment. The catch is that a shower usually happens weeks before the birth, so by the time it matters, half the room has forgotten. Appoint someone right there whose job is to post the result and the leaderboard afterwards.
In the group chat, over weeks
A better game, slower burn. Open it somewhere around 32 to 34 weeks, post the link once, then leave it alone. One nudge at about 37 weeks — "last call, guessing closes Sunday" — and that's your lot. Don't post daily. The parents are tired, and a running commentary reads as pressure rather than excitement.
The bonus is real, though: a pool gives everyone somewhere to put their anticipation that isn't a message saying "any news?" to two exhausted people. Point the chat at the board instead.
Either way, the organiser has one job at the end that most pools forget: post the result. The actual date, the actual weight, the leaderboard and a photo, if the parents are happy to share one. That's the payoff for everyone who played.
A word about due dates
Due dates are estimates, and famously loose ones. Only a small share of babies — the figure usually quoted is around one in twenty — arrive on the estimated date itself, and most turn up somewhere in a couple of weeks either side of it. First babies have a reputation for running late, and the averages lean that way, mildly.
Two practical consequences. For guessers: the due date itself is the crowded square, so spreading out a few days either way is the smarter guess. For organisers: expect the due date to be revised, expect plans to change, and don't build a rule that depends on it holding. Guess the arrival, not the prediction.
Run one in about a minute
The baby guess pool sets all of this up for you: parents' names, a rough due date if there is one, and a note for the group. Guests tap one link, put in a name, a date and a weight in kilograms, and they're in — no app, no login, and their browser remembers their own guesses so they can change their mind. When bub arrives you enter the real date and weight, and the leaderboard sorts itself by the points-off rule above.
Run one free, no signup, no card. It doesn't handle money or prizes — that part stays between you and the group, same as it always has. If the shower needs the rest of the logistics, bring a plate sorts the food and gift ideas stops four people buying the same bouncer.
FAQ
What is a good prize for a baby pool?
Something small and funny — bragging rights and a photo with the baby, a bottle of something, a $20 to $30 voucher, naming rights to the first teddy. If you charge an entry, keep it to a gold coin or $5 and put the whole lot towards a gift for the parents rather than a prize.
How does a baby guess pool work?
Everyone guesses a couple of things about the arrival — usually the date and the weight — and once the baby turns up, whoever guessed closest wins. You only need to settle three things up front: what people guess, how you score it, and what the winner gets.
What should people guess in a baby pool?
Score the arrival date and the weight, and run hair and "who they'll look like" as unscored side bets. Length plays badly because nearly everyone guesses 48 to 52 cm, eye colour can't be settled for months, and time of day works better as a tiebreaker than a category.
How do you decide the winner if two guesses are close?
Use a combined points-off score: one point for every day away from the real date plus one point for every 100 grams away from the real weight, lowest total wins. For ties, the standard is that the earliest guess takes it.
What's a good prize for a baby pool?
Something small and funny — bragging rights and a photo with the baby, a bottle of something, a $20 to $30 voucher, naming rights to the first teddy. If you charge an entry, keep it to a gold coin or $5 and put the whole lot towards a gift for the parents rather than a prize.
Should the parents be allowed to guess?
Yes, and their guesses are usually the most entertaining ones. If there's a prize with real value, put them in their own line on the board rather than in the running for it, and let them decide whether their guesses show publicly.
Can you run a baby pool for an adoption or surrogacy?
Yes. Swap the due date for the day you meet them or the placement day, and if there's no date to anchor to, guess a window instead — which week, and what the first photo will look like.